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Scenario 07 · When the outage stops being an event and becomes a season

How to Prepare for a Long Grid Failure

Texas 2021 taught the country that the grid can fail at scale, in weather, for days. This page is the power outage plan with the time horizon it deserves.

Updated July 2026 · Lessons drawn from Uri 2021 and the 2003 Northeast blackout

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Quick answer

A grid failure is a power outage that outlives your fridge strategy. Plan two weeks: water stored and purifiable because city pressure can fail with the pumps, food that needs no cooking, warmth that needs no furnace, cash because card networks ride the same grid, and a radio because cell towers have batteries measured in hours. It is the same kit as a short outage, deepened.

Supply numbers are set for 4 people. Change your household size below and every quantity updates.

2 weeks

Supply target

4.5M

Texas homes dark in Uri, 2021

Hours

Cell tower battery reserves

Cash

Card networks fail with the grid

How a grid failure actually unfolds

Day 1

Feels like a normal outage. The tell is scale: the whole region is dark, restoration estimates vanish, and officials start using the word conserve.

Days 2 to 3

Dominoes: water pressure drops as pumps drain backup power, cell coverage gets spotty, gas stations with dead pumps close, and stores go cash-only or shut.

Days 4 to 10

The household runs on stored water, shelf food, and battery discipline. One room becomes the warm room or cool room depending on season.

Restoration

Power returns in waves, then water gets boil-notices as pressure rebuilds. The kit refills before the memory fades, because the next one starts the same way.

Play it out

Two dark weeks, three decisions

A February grid failure in a cold snap, played honestly.

Scene 1 of 3

Day 1, evening. Rolling outages became a hard outage this morning. The house is at 61 degrees and dropping a degree an hour. The whole neighborhood is dark, and restoration is officially unknown.

Prefer to read it straight through?

Scene 1

Day 1, evening. Rolling outages became a hard outage this morning. The house is at 61 degrees and dropping a degree an hour. The whole neighborhood is dark, and restoration is officially unknown.

If you space out around the house, pile on blankets everywhere: Livable tonight at 58, harder tomorrow at 48. Heating six rooms with body heat and blankets is a losing math problem; the house is simply too much volume. Everyone is cold everywhere instead of warm somewhere.

If you collapse the house: one room, everyone, sealed and layered: The smallest bedroom becomes the warm room: door closed, towel at the gap, window blanketed, four bodies and the dog. It holds in the mid 60s while the house drops to the 40s. This is how households rode out Uri comfortably.

Field note: One sealed room with the household's body heat holds 15 to 20 degrees above the rest of the house. Shrink the problem to a size your resources can win.

Scene 2

Day 3. Water pressure has gone from strong to sputtering: the city's pumps are on backup power that is running down. Your stored water is fine, but the taps' days are numbered.

If you the city always figures water out. use the taps normally: Then the taps drop to a trickle on day four, and the stored water becomes everything, three days earlier than planned. It still works out, but the margin you paid for is gone, and flushing toilets just got complicated.

If you fill everything now: tubs, pots, jugs, while pressure lasts: Ninety minutes of filling while the pressure holds: the bathtub becomes 60 gallons of flush-and-wash water, and every pot holds drinking backup. When the pressure fails on day four, your household barely notices.

Field note: City water pressure is grid-dependent: pumps run on backup power with finite fuel. Falling pressure is the warning to bank water immediately, in every container that holds it.

Scene 3

Day 6. A store two miles away reopens, cash only, limit ten items. You have $40 in bills from the kit. The line is long but moving, and the shelves are half-stocked with the basics.

If you spend it all topping up comfort foods: Chips and cookies improve morale, no judgment. But the kit's cash was doing a specific job: fuel, medicine, or the one thing you cannot shelf-stock. Spending the reserve on wants during week one is how week two gets tight.

If you buy only what the shelf cannot cover, keep half the cash: Fresh fruit for morale, batteries because they were there, and $20 stays in the envelope. The kit's job is covering what stores cannot; the cash's job is covering what the kit cannot. Both are still on duty.

Field note: In extended outages, cash becomes the only payment layer that works, and it is unrentable once spent. Treat kit cash like a supply item with a job, not found money.

The grid failure checklist

People in your household

One page per scenario: quantities resize in place, and the link you share always shows this plan.

Your head start

0 of 14 days covered

0 of 15 essentials on hand

Tick what you already own.Save this as your real plan →

Supplies buy you days. Gear keeps those days livable. Most families discover they start around day 3.

ItemFor 4 peopleWhy it mattersCovers
Water · 56 gallons total
Bottled water, 24-pack cases11 cases (about 34 gal)Sealed, portable, splits between rooms and the car.Days 1 to 9
5-gallon water jugs5 jugsThe cheapest gallons you can store. Fill spares before the event, not during.Days 10 to 14
Water purification tablets1 packTurns suspect tap or tub water into drinking water after day 14.Backup
Food, no cooking required
Canned protein: tuna, chicken, beans36 cansEats straight from the can when the stove is out.No cooking
Canned vegetables and fruit40 cansFluids and vitamins while the fridge is dark.No cooking
Peanut butter4 large jars2,650 calories per jar, no prep, kids will actually eat it.No cooking
Crackers, tortillas, granola bars8 boxes plus a dozen barsThe bread aisle empties first. These keep for months instead of days.No cooking
Oats and shelf-stable milk12 cartons plus a canister of oatsBreakfast without power, and the milk needs no fridge until opened.No cooking
Power, light, and news
Flashlights or headlamps5 flashlightsOne per person plus a spare. Candles start fires in dark houses.All week
Batteries in every size you use2 packs per sizeThe thing that runs out on day 2 if you guess.All week
Phone battery banks, fully charged2 banksYour phone is your flashlight, radio, and lifeline. Top the banks up the moment trouble is forecast.All week
NOAA weather radio, battery or crank1When cell towers and wifi fail, official updates still reach you here.All week
Warmth without the furnace
Sleeping bags rated to freezing4 bagsThe warm room's floor is the backup furnace.Winter
Wool blankets and layers4 setsWarmth without any flame or fuel risk indoors.Winter
Battery CO alarm1 per sleeping floorLong outages are when improvised heating kills. This alarm is the backstop.Safety
When systems fail
Cash in small billsTwo weeks of essentials worthCard networks, ATMs, and payment apps all ride the grid you just lost.Critical
Printed contact card4 cardsPhone numbers live in a device with a battery. Paper does not run out.Backup
Full gas tank habitKeep above halfStation pumps are electric. The half-tank rule means you always hold escape range.Habit
Health and documents
First aid kit1Minor injuries spike during cleanup, exactly when help is hardest to reach.All week
Prescription medications14-day supply eachPharmacies reopen slowly. Ask your pharmacist about an emergency refill before you need it.2 weeks
Documents in a waterproof bagIDs, insurance, cash in small billsATMs and card readers die with the power.Grab and go
Manual can opener1Most of the calories above are locked inside cans without it.Critical

This is the power outage kit at two-week depth, plus the layers people miss: water purification for when pressure fails, warmth without a furnace, and cash. Print this page to take it shopping.

In the app

Two weeks of depth needs an inventory, not a guess

Provision Planner has a built-in Grid Failure scenario. It tracks water, food, warmth, and cash-layer items against the two-week target, works fully offline, and shows exactly which day your coverage ends as supplies get used.

Run the grid failure scenario

Frequently asked questions

How is this different from a normal power outage?

Duration and dominoes. Past about 72 hours, the systems that ride the grid start failing too: water pressure, cell coverage, fuel pumps, and payments. A grid failure plan is a power outage plan that also covers water, warmth, communication, and cash.

Has this actually happened in the US?

Yes, repeatedly at regional scale: the 2003 Northeast blackout hit 50 million people, and winter storm Uri in 2021 left millions of Texas homes dark for days in freezing weather, with water systems failing behind the power. Two weeks of household depth is the planning answer.

Why does water fail when power fails?

Municipal water is pumped, and pumps are electric. Systems carry backup generation with limited fuel, so pressure holds for a while and then sags. Falling pressure is your signal to fill tubs and containers immediately, and boil-water notices usually follow restoration.

How much cash should I keep for this?

Enough small bills to buy two weeks of essentials for your household: think groceries, fuel, and a pharmacy run. Keep it in the kit, not the wallet, so it survives normal life and is there when card networks are not.

Explore more scenarios

Every scenario gets the same treatment: the event, the supplies, the timeline, and your number.

Go deeper: Surviving a Long Power Outage · 2-Week Supply Plan for 4 People · Food Storage Calculator

Grid dependency chains follow DOE and FEMA infrastructure guidance; the two-week target mirrors extended-outage lessons from Uri and the 2003 blackout. This is general planning guidance: adjust for climate, medical needs, and your household. Photography: NASA image library and Pexels, used under their respective licenses.